Ahead of the COP31 climate conference in Antalya, the second edition of the 'Allianz Green Transition Tracker' concludes that while the world is overall heading towards CO2 neutrality, it is far too slow to reach climate goals. The report 'The clean-tech turning point and why emissions could soon follow' shows that clean technologies are overcoming political resistance, yet they fail to displace fossil fuels quickly enough to limit global emissions timely and achieve net-zero goals.
Almost everyone is on the path - but not quickly enough The tracker assesses 65 economies responsible for 81% of global greenhouse gas emissions based on five indicators: Carbon and energy intensity, consumption and area-based per capita emissions, as well as the share of low-carbon energies in the power mix. Its progress index measures how far each country has come since 2015 on the way to its net-zero goal for 2050. This year, 56 countries improved their score by an average of 2 points. Yet, only about a third of the countries are keeping pace with the reduction paths consistent with the Paris Agreement. Luxembourg, Denmark, and Estonia top the progress index ranking, and all top ten are European countries. Colombia saw the greatest improvement (+16.5 points) thanks to a boost in hydropower and new solar capacities, while oil producers in the Gulf continue to lag.
'Almost every country is moving in the right direction. The problem is the pace. At the current rate, net-zero will be achieved in 2064 - 14 years later than planned,' says Patrick Hoffmann, ESG Economist at Allianz Research. 'And the climate policy gap is widening: The leaders are pulling further ahead while the laggards struggle to keep up.'
Switzerland remains among the leaders despite a decline in the progress index Switzerland has fallen four places in the progress index to rank 8. Its score dropped by 2.9 points to 43.7, while the global average increased by 2.0 points. Switzerland has thus already covered more than two-fifths of the way to its net-zero goals. It is ahead of Lithuania (rank 9), Finland (rank 10), and the Netherlands (rank 11), but behind Luxembourg (rank 1), Denmark (rank 2), and the United Kingdom (rank 7).
The decline is largely due to a base effect: With a 97.7% share in 2025 (compared to 98.1% the previous year), Switzerland's power generation is already almost entirely low-CO2. Therefore, even a slight deterioration weighs heavily in the progress index (-21.9 points for this indicator). In other areas, the positive trend continues: The share of electric vehicles in new car sales rose from 28% to 34%, total emissions remained stable, and consumption-based per capita emissions decreased (+5.2 points in the corresponding indicator). 'Despite the decline in the progress index, Switzerland remains among the leaders in the green transformation. Since power generation is already almost entirely low-CO2, even small fluctuations can heavily influence the rating without signifying a trend reversal. Progress in electromobility and declining consumption-based per capita emissions are encouraging signals. The key will be to secure the lead in clean power while further reducing emissions,' says Katharina Utermöhl, Head of Thematic and Policy Research at Allianz Research.
A two-speed energy transition Countries in the upper half of the ranking gained an average of 2.6 points - nearly twice as much as those in the lower half (1.3). The EU remains at the forefront (+2.2 points), but its emissions fell only by 0.2% in 2025, having previously achieved average annual reductions of 4%; at this pace, it would meet its targets by 2057. The USA increased by only 1.2 points and fell to rank 41, as emissions rose for the second consecutive year and coal power generation increased by 13%. China (+2.3 points, rank 43) and India (+4.5 points, up five places to rank 45) show signs of a turning point: China's emissions growth practically slowed to zero, with battery-electric vehicles accounting for nearly half of new car sales, and India recorded its first emissions decline in 25 years that did not coincide with an economic contraction.
Power generation has gone green - and clean technologies are becoming increasingly affordable In 2025, renewable energies - with a 33.5% share - overtook coal (33.2%) as the world's largest power source for the first time in over a century, supplying 99% of the newly connected power amount. This resulted in the global emissions growth rate slowing from 1.5% in the previous two years to 0.7%. Declining costs are driving the transition further: The annually newly installed battery storage capacity increased from around 2 GWh in 2015 to 307 GWh in 2025, as installation costs fell by 91%. Simultaneously, the price difference between battery-powered electric cars and internal combustion engine vehicles shrank from 49% to 20% since 2019. The next phase will be determined as much by networks and storage capacities as by new generation capacities: Investments in clean energy will rise by 6.5% to $2.2 trillion in 2026, with spending on grids increasing by 21% and storage by 36%, while investments in renewable energy generation are expected to decrease slightly.
Geopolitics, not climate policy, is determining prices Geopolitics currently sends a stronger price signal than climate policy, driving diesel prices and demand for electric vehicles upward. Allianz Research has calculated that the diesel price increase due to the Iran war corresponds to a CO2 price of over 200 euros per ton. In the EU, battery-electric cars reached a 30% share of new registrations in September, an increase of 11 percentage points within a year. However, a new round of subsidies for fossil fuels, still around 70% higher than before the 2022 energy crisis, poses a risk to Europe's progress.
Outlook: An emissions peak is within reach, but a sustained decline is not yet secured Allianz Research expects CO2 emissions from fossil fuels to fall this year - even though the global economy is growing robustly. Cheaper clean technologies and high fossil fuel prices are the key factors. On the other hand, rising power demand and grid bottlenecks pose the greatest near-term risks: AI and data centers alone could increase global emissions by around 0.6% by 2030. Additionally, high financing costs, trade barriers, and political uncertainty could slow the deployment of green technologies. Whether the emissions peak has already been reached is therefore at least questionable. 'CO2 emissions from fossil fuels could fall by 0.5% this year as the economy grows strongly, yet this is more due to favorable clean technologies and expensive oil than to stricter climate policy,' says Ludovic Subran, Chief Economist and Chief Investment Officer at Allianz. 'A price shock is not a strategy. Governments should resist the temptation to cushion it with new fossil fuel subsidies and instead strengthen the transition through predictable CO2 pricing and faster investments in grids and storage capacities.'