Current Development of Electricity Prices and Guarantees of Origin March 2026

Current Electricity Price Development

Futures prices this winter have shown extreme volatility. A mild winter start was followed by several cold spells, which drove prices significantly higher in January. However, from the end of January, markets turned and prices dropped sharply. Concerns in the CO2 market about potential political interventions in the market mechanism prompted traders to significantly reduce their previously bullish positions, triggering a pronounced downward movement. The mild weather after the cold phases also provided some relief in the gas market—despite historically low storage levels compared to previous years. From mid-February, the bearish scenario reversed, and prices rose again. The persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East between the USA and Iran were decisive factors. Iran's counter-threat to the American provocation—namely the threat to close the Strait of Hormuz—caused risk premiums in the gas market to rise.

While spot prices in December were still moderate, many price spikes occurred due to the calm spells in January. Spot prices during peak morning and evening hours climbed several times above 200 CHF/MWh. In February, the opposite was observed. The weather was considerably milder with increasing wind generation, resulting in several price troughs. Additionally, low French spot prices dragged down the price level in Switzerland.

Outlook

In the coming weeks, volatility in both futures and spot markets is expected to remain high. The CO2 market remains a significant uncertainty factor: As long as political interventions in the market mechanism remain possible, price formation is likely to react sensitively to new signals. The situation in the gas market also remains fragile. Despite the recent milder temperatures and the temporarily slowed withdrawals, the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to have an impact. Any further escalation between the USA and Iran—especially concerning the Strait of Hormuz—could significantly increase risk premiums once more and affect electricity and gas prices.

The spot market in the coming weeks will be determined by several factors. Crucial are weather developments, gas storage levels, and gas spot prices, which are partly heavily influenced by geopolitical events. CO2 spot prices also remain relevant as they directly impact the marginal costs of electricity production. Additionally, low French spot prices could continue to exert pressure on the Swiss price level.

Current GOO Prices for a Quantity of 5,000 MWh per Year

In the European market, prices for guarantees of origin in 2025 have risen noticeably. The main drivers of this development were increased demand and a partial decrease in hydropower production. In contrast, Swiss water guarantees of origin have developed downwards. Recently, a weaker price trend was observed here compared to the European environment. A potential demand impulse for Swiss guarantees of origin could arise in the context of the upcoming electricity labelling, as any shortfalls from market participants still need to be filled. In this context, some upward pressure on prices cannot be ruled out. For the year 2026, prices are currently moving largely at a similar level as recently. From today's perspective, a rather sideways market movement is expected.

Editor's note: Image rights belong to the respective publisher. Image rights: AEW Energie AG