The discount rate on sight deposits above this limit remains unchanged at 0.25 percentage points. If necessary, the National Bank is also ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market to ensure appropriate monetary conditions.
Inflation has continued to rise since June, primarily due to higher energy prices. In the medium term, inflationary pressure has only slightly increased. Monetary policy is appropriate to keep inflation within the range of price stability and supports economic development.
Inflation slightly increased from 0.6% in May to 0.8% in August. This increase was due to a rise in the inflation of goods, which was in positive territory for the first time since May 2024 in August. The increase in goods inflation was mainly driven by higher prices for petroleum products.
According to the conditional inflation forecast, inflation will rise slightly in the fourth quarter before declining again in 2027. This decline is expected as the currently significantly increased energy inflation is expected to decrease again in the coming quarters. Thereafter, the conditional inflation forecast rises slightly.
Compared to the last assessment, the forecast is higher in the short term. This is due to higher than expected prices for petroleum products. The medium-term conditional inflation forecast is also slightly higher than in the previous quarter, reflecting, among other things, the weakening of the franc. The conditional inflation forecast remains within the range of price stability throughout the entire forecast period. On average, it is 0.7% in 2026, 0.8% in 2027 and 0.8% in 2028.
The world economy grew stronger than expected in the second quarter. Inflation is above the targets of central banks in many countries, primarily due to increased energy prices. Key interest rates were raised in both the eurozone and the USA.
In its baseline scenario, the National Bank assumes that the world economy will grow moderately over the coming quarters. Inflation is expected to remain elevated for some time.
Uncertainty regarding the baseline scenario remains high, especially because of the situation in the Middle East. Energy prices could be significantly higher than expected, which would further increase inflation and noticeably slow economic growth. Besides the situation in the Middle East, the trade policy environment remains uncertain.
In Switzerland, GDP grew extraordinarily strongly in the second quarter. An unusually strong development in the chemical and pharmaceutical industry led to GDP overstating the underlying growth dynamics. However, even without this effect, growth was solid and broad-based. At the same time, capacity utilization, especially in the industry, remained below average, while unemployment rose slightly again until early summer.
For the coming quarters, the National Bank expects moderate growth. Growth impulses are expected to come from abroad. In addition, monetary policy and the depreciation of the franc have a supportive effect. For the entire year 2026, the National Bank currently expects growth between 1.5% and 2%. For 2027, the National Bank still expects growth of about 1.5%.
The main risk to economic prospects in Switzerland is developments in the global economy. The situation in the Middle East could escalate further, significantly affecting global economic activity. The trade policy environment and exchange rate developments also remain factors of uncertainty.
Detailed information on the monetary policy decision can be found in the Governing Board's introductory comments (available on the SNB website).